“According to Hayek, empirical research either affirms or discredits given methodologies but does not introduce new theories to explain fluctuating trade cycles. ”

I would argue that empirical research can only discredit a certain theory but not confirm it.

About the trade cycle theory: It is exactly where the last should have been applied. It would show that the trade cycle theory is not entirely correct. In particular the theory claims that booms start in the higher-order goods. Empirically however the latest crisis started in housing, which is low-order good. However, since the last contradicts established beliefs it is simply not accepted. When facts and theories meet (in social sciencies) theories always win.

By the way, the most interesting view about empiric data belongs to Mises (if I am not wrong). He states, that empirical data can neither confirm nor disconfirm a particular theory. And since Mises himself has made some statements about trade cycle theory, then what he says in effect is :” Trust me because I say so! You can neither confirm not disconfirm my theory, so just believe me!”